The secret behind Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s explosion at the plate has been hidden in plain sight

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s slow start has become little more than a distant memory. The four-time all-star is playing the best baseball of his career, and in doing so re-established himself as one of the sport’s biggest names.
Guerrero’s production since the all-star break has been sensational. He entered Tuesday night’s 6-3 loss to the Boston Red Sox ranked first in average and then picked up two more hits, including a double. He was also sitting first in total bases, second in on-base plus slugging and fifth in homers.
Aaron Judge, Juan Soto, Bobby Witt Jr., Shohei Ohtani and Francisco Lindor. That’s the company the face of the Blue Jays is keeping these days with a mix of power, plate discipline and the ability to rack up hits.
“For me, that’s who I am, that’s who I am as a player,” Guerrero recently told the Star through interpreter Hector Lebron. “You always have to believe in yourself and I never lost that. I always believed in myself, always came to the field early, went about my routine with my coaches and worked hard. Thank God this year things clicked, but this is who I am.”
Guerrero might have never lost faith, but at least some sections of the media and Jays fan base did. Critics loved to point out that his best production occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic, when the Jays played the majority of their home games in minor-league stadiums. The insinuation was clear: Guerrero’s success was a result of smaller ballparks, not elite talent.
At the time, there were numbers to back up the claims. Guerrero posted a 1.418 OPS at TD Ballpark in Dunedin, Fla., where the ball is known to carry. He also put up a 1.180 OPS in 23 games at Buffalo’s Sahlen Field. In 82 road games, that number plummeted to .875.
His performance the next two years didn’t help his case: an .818 OPS in 2022 and .788 in 2023. Across the same time frame, his home runs were almost cut in half. Last season,  104 players  were worth more wins above replacement.
This year started even worse. Guerrero was hitting .229 with three homers at the end of April. Some mechanical adjustments were made, particularly to how he held the bat, and the numbers have been going up ever since. In May, his OPS increased to .917, followed by .968 in June, 1.113 in July and 1.192 in August entering Tuesday night’s game against the Red Sox in Boston.
Dating back to mid-July, few have done it better. His 1.346 OPS trails only Judge, and he sits third in WAR. During the same stretch, Guerrero became the first major-leaguer to produce at least 10 doubles and 10 home runs in his first 25 games after the all-star break.
Snarky critics aside, the narrative about Guerrero’s previous success being a byproduct of minor-league stadiums never made much sense. This isn’t a guy who  hits balls barely over the wall. He’s one of the strongest players in the game who generates effortless power, with a league-leading 238 hard-hit balls.
When Guerrero connects, the majority of his home runs are no-doubters that would fly out of any ballpark from Dunedin to Toronto. And while previous field dimensions worked in his favour, his production wasn’t solely because of that. 
The baseball community is starting to see that now. Guerrero’s OPS+, which adjusts for a player’s ballpark, was higher entering Tuesday than at the end of 2021 (169 vs. 167). He’s on pace to finish with more hits, already has more doubles and his on-base percentage is almost identical.
The only category he won’t be able to match is home runs. Guerrero hit 48 when he finished runner-up to Ohtani for American League MVP in 2021; this year he has 27, after being stuck on five at the end of May.
So, what changed? Contrary to popular belief, the resurgence has nothing to do with the launch angle of his swing, which is three degrees lower than a year ago. It also has nothing to do with improved plate discipline, because he’s chasing on 2.9 per cent more pitches than in 2021.
There haven’t been any major mechanical adjustments. This might just be the case of a player who is 25 years old, more comfortable than ever and coming into his own. 
Guerrero always figured to be a bet-on-himself type. He wasn’t going to sign a long-term contract extension when his perceived value was low, and that should soon prove wise. If the current production continues, some team out there is going to back up a Brinks truck to sign him.
The 2021 season wasn’t a fluke, we know that now, but based on his skill set that should have been common knowledge already. Some guys are just built different, and Guerrero happens to be one of the lucky few.